Oil Hits $100: Could Iran’s Hormuz Threat Trigger a Bigger Price Surge?

Global oil markets remained on edge as Brent Crude hovered around $100 per barrel, with no signs of de-escalation in the conflict between Iran and the United States.

Prices surged past the $100 mark for the second time since tensions escalated following the killing of former Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in a joint US-Israeli military operation reportedly called ‘Epic Fury’.

The widening conflict has destabilised much of the Middle East, with missile and drone strikes damaging infrastructure and disrupting civilian life. Several countries in the region have reported flight suspensions, while many foreign workers have begun leaving amid security concerns.

Oil Markets Defy Strategic Reserve Plan

Despite efforts to stabilise global supply, oil prices continued to rise. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has proposed releasing around 400 million barrels from strategic petroleum reserves, a move that would exceed the emergency release made during the Russia-Ukraine War in 2022.

However, markets remain nervous about supply disruptions, particularly as the conflict threatens critical energy transit routes.

Iran’s New Supreme Leader Issues Warning

In his first public remarks since taking power, Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei delivered a defiant message to Washington. He called for the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and urged Gulf nations to shut down all US military bases in the region.

Such a move could severely disrupt the flow of oil and natural gas shipments, as the Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints.

Iran has also reportedly intensified attempts to target oil tankers passing through the narrow waterway, through which around 20–30% of global oil trade is transported.

Risk of Further Price Surge

Energy analysts warn that oil prices could climb further if the conflict drags on. According to Capital Economics, sustained crude prices in the $90–$100 per barrel range could already begin to push up inflation and slow economic growth in major economies.

If tensions continue to escalate and the Strait of Hormuz faces prolonged disruption, experts caution that global oil markets could experience even sharper price spikes in the coming weeks.