Bengal Poll 2026: Survey Predicts Clear TMC Win, Mamata Banerjee Top CM Choice

TMC Set for Fourth Term in Bengal, Mamata Leads CM Race: Opinion Poll

The ruling All India Trinamool Congress is projected to return to power in West Bengal for a fourth consecutive term, according to the latest Vote Tracker opinion poll conducted by VoteVibe.

The survey estimates that the Trinamool Congress, led by Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, could secure between 184 and 194 seats in the 294-member Assembly—comfortably above the majority mark.

The opposition Bharatiya Janata Party is projected to win 98–108 seats, while other parties are expected to have only a marginal impact.

Mamata Maintains Edge

Mamata Banerjee continues to dominate as the preferred chief ministerial face, with 48.5% of respondents backing her. She leads well ahead of BJP leader Suvendu Adhikari, who garnered 33.4% support.

The TMC also holds an advantage in vote share, with 41.9% of respondents favouring the ruling party compared to 34.9% supporting the BJP.

Additionally, 36.5% of voters indicated a willingness to re-elect sitting TMC MLAs, reflecting a degree of incumbency support.

Mixed Views on Governance

Public opinion on the government’s performance remains divided. Around 43.3% rated it as “good” or “very good,” while a significant section expressed dissatisfaction—20.6% termed it “very poor” and 18.3% “poor.”

Perceptions vary across communities. Muslim respondents showed the highest approval, with 44.2% rating governance as “very good.” In contrast, upper-caste Hindus and Scheduled Tribes were more critical, with 26.6% in both groups calling the government’s performance “very poor.”

Key Election Issues

Unemployment has emerged as the top concern, cited by 37.2% of respondents across demographics. Law and order, including women’s safety, ranked second at 15.9%, followed by price rise (10.5%) and corruption (10.3%).

The survey also reflects the continuing impact of the RG Kar Medical College incident on voter sentiment around safety.

BJP’s Challenges

The poll identifies internal discord as a key issue for the BJP, with 19.9% of respondents pointing to factionalism. A perceived lack of a strong state leader (17.2%) and concerns about cultural disconnect (12.5%) also weighed on the party.

Another 22.5% of respondents said they were unsure about the BJP’s weaknesses, indicating either limited awareness or reluctance to comment.

Snapshot Ahead of 2026

In the 2021 Assembly elections, the TMC secured a sweeping victory with 220 seats, returning Mamata Banerjee to power for a third term.

While opinion polls offer only an early snapshot, the latest findings suggest the TMC heads into the 2026 elections with a clear electoral advantage.