Explained: Why Ladakh Is Witnessing Extreme Swings Between Floods And Drought

Explained: Why Ladakh Is Seeing More Extreme Wet And Dry Weather

For generations, Ladakh’s high-altitude cold desert remained largely shielded from the Indian monsoon. The towering Himalayas acted as a natural barrier, forcing moisture-laden winds to lose most of their rain before reaching the region.

That pattern is now changing. Over the past five years, Ladakh has recorded unusually high summer rainfall, even as winter snowfall has declined. Scientists say the shift is linked to rising temperatures, changing atmospheric circulation and increasingly erratic weather patterns driven by climate change.

Five Years Of Above-Normal Monsoon Rain

Recent India Meteorological Department (IMD) data points to a notable increase in Ladakh’s monsoon rainfall.

While 2021 recorded below-normal rainfall, the IMD revised its long-period average in 2022, lowering Ladakh’s normal seasonal rainfall from 37.7 mm to 22.3 mm based on updated climate data. Since then, the region has consistently received above-normal rainfall.

2022: 37.6 mm (69% above normal)
2023: 45.2 mm (103% above normal)
2024: 17% above normal
2025: 98.6 mm (342% above normal)

August 2025 was particularly exceptional, with 80.2 mm of rain—the highest monthly rainfall recorded in Ladakh since 1973.

Why Is More Rain Reaching Ladakh?

Experts say warmer temperatures are changing how much moisture the atmosphere can carry.

According to Dr Avijit Sahay, Assistant Professor in the Department of Geography at Doon University, Ladakh’s total annual precipitation (rain plus snow) may not have changed dramatically, but the form and timing of that precipitation are changing.

Winter snowfall has become less frequent due to shifts in western disturbances, while rising summer temperatures allow the atmosphere to retain more moisture. As a result, monsoon winds are increasingly able to cross the Himalayan barrier and carry moisture into Ladakh.

Earlier, much of the moisture was released over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand. Today, warmer air enables those moisture-laden systems to travel farther, bringing more rainfall to the Ladakh plateau.

Fewer Rainy Days, Heavier Downpours

Scientists caution that higher seasonal rainfall does not necessarily mean a stronger or longer monsoon.

Instead, rainfall is becoming concentrated into a handful of intense events separated by prolonged dry periods.

Dr Sahay notes that warmer air tends to hold moisture for longer before releasing it in short but intense bursts, increasing the risk of flash floods and other extreme weather events.

This trend is being observed across much of India, where rainfall is becoming more erratic despite little change in overall seasonal totals.

The Role Of Western Disturbances

Professor Ankit Agarwal from IIT Roorkee says another factor may be the interaction between monsoon moisture and western disturbances.

When moist monsoon air collides with upper-level weather systems and is forced upward by the Himalayas, conditions become favourable for intense rainfall.

Research indicates these interactions can organise extreme precipitation events across northern India, including parts of Ladakh.

However, scientists stress that each event must be studied individually before firmly attributing recent rainfall patterns to this mechanism.

A Climate Warning, Not Yet A New Normal

Researchers say five consecutive years of above-normal rainfall are significant but do not, by themselves, prove that Ladakh’s climate has permanently shifted.

Long-term monitoring will be needed to determine whether the recent pattern represents a lasting trend or an extended period of climate variability.

Even so, the implications are immediate. Ladakh’s settlements, infrastructure and fragile mountain ecosystems have historically evolved for a cold, dry climate. More frequent heavy rainfall, combined with declining snowfall, increases the risks of flash floods, landslides and water management challenges, making climate adaptation an increasingly urgent priority for the region.