UN chief race enters crucial phase as Security Council prepares another straw poll

The UN Security Council is expected to hold another informal “straw poll” later this month as it continues the search for the next UN secretary-general, though diplomats say a final decision remains weeks away.

The 15-member council held its first informal vote last week to choose a successor to Portugal’s Antonio Guterres, who steps down at the end of the year after completing two five-year terms. Former Costa Rican Vice President Rebeca Grynspan emerged as the early frontrunner, followed by former Guyanese Foreign Minister Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett and Argentina’s Rafael Grossi, chief of the UN nuclear watchdog.

Denmark’s UN Ambassador Christina Markus Lassen, whose country holds the Security Council presidency in August, said the next straw poll is expected around August 21.

The next UN chief will inherit an organization facing mounting calls for reform, with critics urging a leaner bureaucracy, lower costs and greater efficiency across UN agencies.

A candidate must avoid a veto from any of the Security Council’s five permanent members — China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States — making consensus among the major powers crucial.

Diplomats expect several more rounds of polling through September, with a final recommendation likely by late September or early October unless the process is prolonged by a lack of consensus or new candidates entering the race.

The remaining candidates include former Chilean President Michelle Bachelet, former Ecuadorian Foreign Minister Maria Fernanda Espinosa, former Senegalese President Macky Sall and Ugandan diplomat Olara Otunnu.

Early straw polls use identical ballots that conceal whether opposition comes from a permanent member. In later rounds, the permanent five cast differently coloured ballots, revealing if a candidate has received a potential veto. Lassen said it was too early to move to that stage, indicating the council has yet to rally around a consensus candidate.

Once agreement is reached, the Security Council must recommend the nominee to the 193-member UN General Assembly, where approval is traditionally considered a formality.