UN Warns Climate Change, Energy Costs Could Drive Food Prices Higher

The United Nations has warned that global food prices could face further upward pressure.

As extreme weather, geopolitical tensions and climate-related disruptions threaten agricultural production and food supply chains.

According to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), its Food Price Index averaged 131.1 points in July 2026, marking a 1% increase from the same month last year. The rise came despite improvements in some harvests, as millions of people continue to face hunger and food insecurity.

The FAO attributed the latest pressure to recurring heatwaves, the effects of El Niño on agricultural output and heightened geopolitical uncertainty. Conflicts have also disrupted energy markets and supply chains, increasing the cost of producing and transporting food.

CEREAL, WHEAT PRICES RISE

Prices of cereals, sugar and vegetable oils increased in July, while meat and dairy prices declined, according to the FAO.

The cereal price index rose 3.4% from June, reversing the downward trend seen during 2025. Global wheat prices jumped 5.8%, partly due to disruptions to Black Sea exports amid the Russia-Ukraine war and the impact of extreme heat on crop yields.

Vegetable oil prices also climbed to their highest level since 2022. The increase was linked to stronger demand from Indonesia’s biodiesel sector and higher crude oil prices.

MILLIONS CONTINUE TO FACE HUNGER

Despite progress in reducing hunger in countries such as Malawi, the UN said nearly 1.9 million people there remain in crisis-level acute food insecurity, classified as Phase 3 under the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) system.

Experts have warned that global food prices could come under additional pressure from persistent inflation, below-average production of staple crops and the potential impact of El Niño during the 2026-27 rainy season.

Several countries, including Afghanistan, Djibouti and Honduras, are already experiencing severe food insecurity, with armed conflict and climate change among the key drivers.

CLIMATE CHANGE THREATENS FOOD SECURITY

The UN has repeatedly warned that climate change is making food systems increasingly vulnerable. Extreme heat, drought and unpredictable weather patterns can reduce crop yields while disrupting agricultural supply chains.

The organisation has also highlighted growing risks to the world’s oceans, warning that deteriorating marine ecosystems could have serious consequences for biodiversity, food production and human well-being.

Meanwhile, the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence is creating additional environmental pressures. Data centres that power AI systems consume significant amounts of electricity and water, potentially adding strain in regions already facing resource shortages.

UN member states have adopted resolutions reaffirming commitments to address climate change, while calls have intensified for greater accountability over environmental damage and activities that threaten ecosystems.

A recent multinational law-enforcement operation in South America, for instance, led to hundreds of arrests and the seizure of assets linked to alleged illegal mineral extraction and livestock activities in the Amazon, underscoring the growing international focus on environmental crimes.