The past few weeks have shaken hopes in Europe that leaders had found a workable formula for managing their uneasy relationship with US President Donald Trump.
This week, Trump sharply escalated tensions with key allies, attacking German Chancellor Friedrich Merz as “totally ineffective” over his criticism of the Iran war. Soon after, the Pentagon announced plans to withdraw 5,000 of the 36,400 US troops stationed in Germany, while Washington also moved to raise tariffs on European Union cars and trucks — a blow expected to hit Germany particularly hard.
Britain has also come under fire. Trump took direct aim at Prime Minister Keir Starmer, saying he was “not Winston Churchill” and threatening steep new tariffs on UK imports.
Behind the scenes, the pressure appears even more intense. Trump’s Defense Department has reportedly discussed punitive measures against NATO allies it views as insufficiently supportive of US operations in Iran, including suspending Spain’s NATO membership and reconsidering Washington’s recognition of the Falkland Islands as British territory.
“It’s unnerving, to say the least,” one European diplomat said. “We are braced for anything, anytime.”
The latest clash over Iran has revived memories of the most volatile early months of Trump’s second term, raising fresh doubts about how Europe should deal with an increasingly unpredictable White House.
No clear playbook
A second European diplomat said former German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s approach during Trump’s first presidency still offers the best guidance.
“You cannot react instantly. You have to let the storm pass while standing firmly by your position,” the diplomat said.
Attempts at flattery, often seen as a way to win Trump over, have proved ineffective, the diplomat added.
“Those who tried it received the same insults as everyone else. It’s become clear that flattery doesn’t work either.”
The White House did not immediately comment.
Old tensions, new flashpoints
Transatlantic ties had already been strained by Trump’s tariff hikes, his push to acquire Greenland, and cuts to US assistance for Ukraine.
In response, several European leaders — including Merz, Starmer and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni — worked to steady relations through repeated diplomatic outreach, trade negotiations and policy adjustments, some politically costly at home.
But those efforts appear to have offered limited protection.
Even NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, often regarded in Europe as one of the few leaders able to navigate Trump effectively, was publicly rebuked during a White House meeting earlier this month.
Meloni, once viewed as among Trump’s closest European partners, was also criticised after condemning the Iran war and accusing him of launching an “unacceptable” verbal attack on Pope Leo.
Unease inside Washington
Trump’s hardline approach is not universally backed within his own party.
Republican Representative Don Bacon publicly criticised threats to reduce US forces in Germany, warning such moves would hurt American strategic interests.
“The continued attacks on NATO allies are counterproductive,” Bacon wrote on X. “The two major airfields in Germany give us crucial access across three continents. We are shooting ourselves in the foot.”
The abruptness of some of Trump’s announcements has also unsettled European officials.
Just hours before Trump threatened troop reductions, Germany’s top military officer, General Carsten Breuer, told reporters he had received positive signals for Berlin’s new defence strategy during meetings at the Pentagon. No troop cuts were mentioned.
Germany’s embassy declined to comment.
Some German military officials remain relatively calm, according to a former senior US defence official.
“Their attitude is basically: we’ve seen this before. There will be plenty of noise, but ultimately not much changes.”
Europe hardens its stance
Still, analysts say something has shifted.
Jeffrey Rathke, head of the American-German Institute at Johns Hopkins University, said European governments are becoming more willing to challenge Trump publicly, driven partly by domestic political pressure.
“Merz has become notably sharper in his criticism of the US war against Iran,” Rathke said.
He noted the shift is significant for a leader who only weeks ago was careful to avoid publicly lecturing Washington.
The war’s impact on European energy prices has made it impossible for governments to treat the conflict as a distant geopolitical event.
For many in Europe, the broader lesson is becoming increasingly clear.
“We can no longer rely on the post-World War II status quo,” one Western diplomat said. “Europe must become not just a soft-power project, but a power capable of backing its interests with real strength.”
That recognition is accelerating efforts across the continent to expand military capabilities, as European leaders prepare for a future in which the US security umbrella can no longer be taken for granted.
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