Gold surged to a record high on Tuesday, with silver remaining close to its lifetime peak, as investors sought safety amid global uncertainty.
Spot gold rose 0.5% to $4,467.66 per ounce, touching an intraday high of $4,469.52. February US gold futures climbed 0.74% to $4,502.30 per ounce, while spot silver gained 0.19% to $69.15, following its record of $69.44 on Monday.
This year, both metals have seen massive gains: gold up ~70%, crossing $4,400 for the first time, and silver surging ~140%, approaching the $70 mark.
Drivers of the Rally
A key factor is the growing expectation of a US Federal Reserve rate cut next year, which makes non-interest-bearing assets like gold and silver more attractive. Geopolitical tensions, including concerns in Venezuela and shipping lanes in the Caribbean, are also pushing investors toward safe-haven assets.
“The rally is being driven by strong expectations of a U.S. rate cut and continued central bank buying, keeping bullish sentiment intact,” said Jateen Trivedi, VP Research at LKP Securities. He cautioned that gold is now in an overbought zone, with Rs 1,37,500 as the next key resistance and a sharp correction possible if prices slip below Rs 1,34,000.
Global bond market concerns are another major factor. Kunal Shah, VP at Nirmal Bang Securities, said fears of a monetary reset and rising debt levels in developed economies are driving gold buying. He expects gold could rise to $4,550–$4,600 and silver to $72–$75 per ounce, but advised realistic return expectations given the metals’ recent surge.
Gold as a Portfolio Hedge
According to Dr. Renisha Chainani, Head of Research at Augmont, gold is now becoming a core part of investor portfolios, not just a crisis asset. Many fund managers are shifting from a traditional 60/40 equity-bond allocation to a 60/20/20 model, replacing some bonds with gold to hedge against inflation.
Silver is also supported by supply shortages, mining disruptions, and low inventories, which keep upward pressure on prices. Chainani warned that commodities are cyclical and a sharp correction cannot be ruled out, though long-term trends remain positive.
Experts suggest gold could target $4,500 (~Rs 138,000) with support at $4,330 (~Rs 133,000), while silver may move toward $70–$72 (~Rs 216,000–Rs 222,000) with support near $64.50 (~Rs 200,000). Investors are advised to remain cautious, keep expectations realistic, and brace for short-term swings.
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