Poll of Polls: DMK set for TN win, Congress eyes Kerala comeback; NDA leads in Assam, Bengal on edge

After a month-long electoral marathon across four states and one Union Territory, a poll of exit polls points to a strong showing for the Bharatiya Janata Party in Assam, while indicating a tight and unpredictable contest in West Bengal.

In the दक्षिण, projections suggest the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam is likely to retain power in Tamil Nadu, while the Indian National Congress-led UDF could return to power in Kerala after a decade. An outlier projection from Axis My India has added intrigue in Tamil Nadu, predicting a surprise surge for actor-turned-politician Vijay’s TVK, with a potential 98–120 seats in the 234-member assembly.

West Bengal: Cliffhanger battle
West Bengal remains the biggest suspense. Several exit polls suggest the BJP could mount a serious challenge to Mamata Banerjee’s All India Trinamool Congress, with projections ranging between 146–175 seats for the saffron party. However, other pollsters foresee a fourth straight victory for the TMC, with estimates going as high as 195–205 seats.

The BJP, which has grown rapidly in the state—from just three seats in 2016 to 77 in 2021—has mounted an aggressive campaign led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah. The party is banking on issues like corruption, governance, and alleged irregularities in welfare schemes, along with electoral roll revisions, to break the TMC’s long-standing dominance.

Assam: BJP set for third term
In Assam, exit polls are largely unanimous in predicting a third consecutive term for the BJP under Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma. The party is projected to win around 88 of the 126 seats. The Congress, led in the state by Gaurav Gogoi, is expected to trail with roughly 27 seats.

Tamil Nadu: DMK leads, Vijay factor emerges
In Tamil Nadu, M. K. Stalin’s DMK is projected to secure around 130 seats, while the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam alliance may get about 65. However, the emergence of Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) is seen as a key disruptor, with projections of around 30 seats potentially reshaping the state’s traditional two-party dynamic.

Kerala: UDF comeback likely
Kerala could witness a shift in power, with exit polls suggesting the Congress-led UDF may secure around 77 seats, ahead of the Left Front’s projected 55. If these numbers hold, it would mark a significant setback for Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan and the Left, ending a decade in power.

For the Congress, a win in Kerala would provide a much-needed boost after recent electoral setbacks in several states, reinforcing its position in at least one key southern stronghold.