UN Warns of Extreme Weather Risks as ‘Godzilla’ El Niño Strengthens

The world is heading into a period of heightened extreme-weather risk as El Niño rapidly intensifies and is expected to develop into a very strong event later this year, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned.

The climate pattern is likely to persist into early 2027, triggering significant shifts in global rainfall and temperature patterns and increasing the threat of extreme heat, drought and flooding across different regions.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres issued a stark warning, saying the planet is entering an “extreme weather” danger zone as ocean temperatures continue to climb.

El Niño Intensifies Rapidly

El Niño occurs when sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific become unusually warm. Recent observations indicate that the warming has become exceptionally strong.

The Niño 3.4 index, a key indicator used to monitor El Niño, averaged around 2°C above normal in July. Weekly readings subsequently rose to between 2.2°C and 2.6°C above average.

The warming is also extending beneath the ocean surface. In parts of the tropical Pacific, subsurface temperatures were more than 8°C above normal during July and early August, creating a large reservoir of heat that could fuel further strengthening.

According to WMO forecasts, there is an almost 100% probability that El Niño will continue through February 2027, with the phenomenon expected to reach its peak towards the end of 2026.

Extreme Weather Risks Rising

A very strong El Niño can disrupt atmospheric circulation and shift rainfall and heat patterns across large parts of the world.

Some regions may face prolonged dry spells, increasing wildfire and water-security risks, while others could see heavier rainfall and flooding. Above-normal temperatures are also expected across much of the world’s land areas in the coming months.

For India, a strengthening El Niño could add pressure on the southwest monsoon, agriculture and water resources. The climate phenomenon has historically been linked to weaker or more erratic monsoon rainfall.

The India Meteorological Department has also warned that El Niño could strengthen further during the October-December period. India has already experienced a significant rainfall deficit in August, while September rainfall is expected to remain below normal.

However, El Niño does not affect every region in the same way. Its impact varies depending on geography, season and interactions with other climate patterns, including conditions in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans.

Climate Change Could Intensify the Impact

El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon, and there is currently no evidence that human-caused climate change is making such events more frequent or stronger.

However, a warmer atmosphere and ocean can intensify some of El Niño’s effects, particularly heatwaves and episodes of extreme rainfall.

The previous major El Niño, in 2023-24, contributed to exceptionally high global temperatures and coincided with 2024 becoming the warmest year on record.

WMO Calls for Early Preparedness

The WMO is working with national meteorological and hydrological agencies to strengthen forecasting, early-warning systems and disaster preparedness. The focus is increasingly on taking preventive action before extreme events strike. Governments, farmers, health agencies, water managers and humanitarian organisations can use seasonal forecasts to prepare for changing weather risks.

With El Niño expected to strengthen further before the end of 2026, the coming months could be critical. The UN and WMO have issued a clear message: extreme-weather risks are rising, and governments and communities must prepare before the next disaster strikes.