Reliance Q2 Earnings Today: Retail, Jio, and O2C Poised to Boost Growth

Reliance Q2 Results Today: Retail, Jio, and O2C Set to Drive Strong Earnings.

Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) is set to announce its Q2 FY26 results today, with analysts expecting robust growth across its core businesses. The September quarter is projected to benefit from strong refining margins and continued expansion in consumer-focused segments—Reliance Retail and Jio.

According to the median of nine analysts’ estimates, RIL’s net profit could rise 11% year-on-year to around Rs 18,450 crore, while consolidated EBITDA is expected to increase 14% to Rs 44,400 crore, driven by gains across its oil-to-chemicals (O2C), retail, and digital services segments.

Strong O2C Performance Supported by Refining Margins

Refining margins remained firm during the quarter, aided by strong diesel and jet fuel spreads and a weaker rupee, which boosted export realizations. Brokers like Axis Capital and UBS expect O2C EBITDA to grow over 20% YoY, while J.P. Morgan projects a 26% rise, supported by improved product spreads. HSBC also anticipates a solid quarter for O2C, citing favorable refining conditions and steady energy business performance.

Retail and Jio Continue Growth Momentum

Reliance Retail and Jio are expected to maintain positive momentum. UBS forecasts retail revenue growth of 13% YoY, led by grocery and fashion segments, with Axis Capital projecting a similar 13% increase in EBITDA while maintaining margins. In the digital services segment, analysts from UBS and Nomura expect 15–16% YoY EBITDA growth, driven by continued subscriber additions and modest gains in ARPU.

Focus on Upstream, New Energy, and Long-Term Triggers

RIL’s upstream oil and gas business is expected to remain stable, contributing modestly to overall earnings. Investor attention is likely to shift toward management commentary on the “Powering AI” ecosystem, including data centre investments, renewable energy capacity, and collaborations with Meta, Google, and NVIDIA. Brokers such as Morgan Stanley and HSBC view updates on these initiatives as potential long-term re-rating triggers, even if they have limited near-term earnings impact.

Consensus: Broad-Based Growth with Positive Outlook

Analysts broadly expect a steady Q2 performance. J.P. Morgan forecasts 14% YoY EBITDA growth and 12% profit growth, though higher depreciation and interest costs could limit net profit flow-through. Most firms, including UBS, Axis Capital, Kotak, HSBC, and Morgan Stanley, maintain ‘Buy’ or ‘Overweight’ ratings, with target prices between Rs 1,700 and Rs 1,780.