Climate Change Threatens Kashmir’s Lifeline as Rivers Shrink and Fields Dry

For generations, Kashmir has been defined by its lush valleys, snow-fed rivers and orchards heavy with apples, cherries and walnuts. Today, those natural foundations are under strain.

Climate change is steadily undermining agriculture and water systems across the Valley, threatening the rural economy that sustains most of its people. Agriculture employs more than 70 per cent of Kashmir’s population and contributes nearly 15 per cent to the local economy. Yet farmers say it is no longer a reliable livelihood. Shrinking glaciers, erratic rainfall and rising temperatures have turned climate change from an abstract concern into a daily reality marked by crop failures, water scarcity and rising debt.

In Pulwama, apple grower Ghulam Nabi, who has tended orchards for over three decades, says winters have grown shorter and increasingly unpredictable. “The trees bloom early now, but late frosts destroy the flowers,” he said. Apple yields in several areas have dropped by 40–50 per cent. With Kashmir producing over 75 per cent of India’s apples, the crisis has national implications.

Saffron cultivation in Pampore has been hit even harder. Once earning farmers six to seven lakh rupees per acre, saffron fields now deliver barely half their earlier output. Warmer winters and erratic rainfall have disrupted the crop’s sensitive flowering cycle. Production, which exceeded eight metric tonnes in the early 2010s, has fallen to nearly one-third, with many families reporting losses of 60–70 per cent.

Farming systems under strain

Climate change is dismantling the finely balanced agricultural systems of the Valley. Rice paddies spread across nearly 130,000 hectares depend on snowmelt and glacial rivers. Early snowmelt and uneven rainfall have reduced irrigation during critical growing stages. In villages such as Haritar and Lelhar, canals that once ensured steady water flow now run dry.

To cope, many farmers pump water from deeper wells, sharply increasing costs. Others leave land uncultivated altogether. Vegetable growers report yield declines of up to 35 per cent in crops like potatoes, cauliflower and tomatoes due to heat stress and water shortages.

The human cost

The damage extends beyond yields and acreage. Average temperatures in Kashmir have risen by about 0.6°C per decade over the past 30 years, disrupting traditional growing seasons. Farmers report heatwaves in May and June scorching wheat and mustard, while delayed monsoon rains leave rice fields parched.

Apple growers have been particularly affected by declining chilling hours, which have fallen from around 1,500 two decades ago to below 1,000 today—insufficient for optimal fruit development. Many have invested in sprinklers and cooling systems, often relying on loans they struggle to repay. Smallholders with less than two acres of land are the most vulnerable, with some families slipping into debt or considering migration.

Extreme weather events have become routine. Late spring frosts, hailstorms during peak fruiting, and unseasonal rains that wash away fertile topsoil are no longer rare. Farmers describe these events as a “new normal” that has shattered the Valley’s agricultural rhythm.

Water resources under siege

At the heart of the crisis lies water scarcity. Glaciers such as Kolahoi, which feed major rivers, have retreated by nearly 900 metres over the past five decades, sharply reducing summer flows. Springs that once supplied water year-round are drying up, with nearly one in four major springs in farming villages showing significant decline.

In districts like Pulwama and Shopian, lift irrigation systems now operate at less than half their capacity. Dependence on motor pumps has increased irrigation costs by 40–50 per cent, forcing many small farmers to abandon cultivation.

The consequences extend beyond agriculture. Reduced river flows have affected hydropower generation, disrupting electricity supply in rural areas. Shrinking wetlands and groundwater recharge zones threaten long-term water security. When rain does arrive, it often falls in intense bursts, triggering floods instead of replenishing aquifers.

A question of justice and survival

Experts warn that Kashmir’s crisis is also one of climate justice. The region contributes minimally to global greenhouse gas emissions but bears a disproportionate share of climate impacts. Farmers and agricultural labourers—once closely aligned with natural cycles—are now among the first victims of global environmental change.

Addressing the challenge will require long-term solutions rather than short-term relief. Specialists emphasise integrated watershed management, conservation of glaciers and springs, climate-resilient crops, efficient irrigation and community-based early warning systems. Policies, they say, must prioritise smallholders and women farmers, ensuring access to training, credit and institutional support.

Kashmir’s experience is a warning for other glacier-fed mountain regions. Without timely adaptation, climate stress could trigger food insecurity, economic shocks and migration well beyond the Valley.

As rivers shrink and fields dry, Kashmir’s agriculture stands at a critical crossroads. What is at stake is not only food production, but the cultural, social and economic fabric of a region whose life has always been tied to land and water. For farmers here, climate change is no longer just an environmental issue—it is a human crisis demanding urgent action.