Governments have been voted out in Himachal Pradesh after every election since 1985.
The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) hopes to end the trend even as the Congress, which is seen to have mostly run a lacklustre campaign, is banking on anti-incumbency to return to power.
Both parties are hamstrung as they lack leaders with mass appeal across the state. Former chief ministers Prem Kumar Dhumal and Shanta Kumar have not campaigned for the BJP because of their advancing age. Congress is fighting the first election since six-time chief minister Virbhadra Singh’s death in 2021.
The BJP is relying on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s appeal and strong and motivated cadre. “The Prime Minister is still popular and we like him,” said Naveen Sachdeva, a shopkeeper in Shimla. He added Modi’s appeal will help the BJP but added people also know the election is about electing the chief minister.
The polling to elect the 68-member Himachal assembly will take place on November 12 and the results will be declared on December 8.
Angry employees
Around 200,000 government employees are expected to play a key role in deciding which party wins. Aam Aadmi Party and Congress’s promise for the restoration of the old pension scheme is a major attraction for the employees.
Even Dhumal has backed the restoration. “As the employees for life for the government, there should be an assurance of minimum pension for them so that they can live with dignity and respectability. The modalities can be worked out between the government and the employee unions.”
The restoration will lead to an additional burden of ₹6,000 crore for the state, which is under a debt of ₹77,000 crore.
Pradeep Thakur, the convener of an employees union formed to press for the restoration, said the burden will be spread out for years as all government employees will not retire in one or two years. “The money would be still much less than what the government gives as tax and other benefits to the corporate sector.”
Ramesh Diwan, a Kangra resident, said “too much focus” on the government employees is having a reverse polarising impact. “Many believe that too much of the government resources are spent on public sector employees and because of this the developmental works suffer. People, who are not in government, will vote against restoration of the pension.’
Hardesh Arya, a Shimla resident, echoed Diwan. “Why are government servants always unhappy? The government provides homes, vehicles, and allowances and still they demand more.”
The lack of government jobs over the last five years has been a reason for concern, especially in the lower Himachal districts of Hamirpur, Mandi, Kangra, and Una.
The government sought to fill in the vacancies in Himachal Road Transport Corporation and police over the past two years but question paper leaks resulted in the cancellation of recruitment examinations. “What was my fault if the paper got leaked?” asked Mukesh Rana, 22, a government job aspirant from Kangra.
In absence of private sector jobs, the government is the main source of employment. Himachal has the highest ratio of its population in government jobs.
Dissidence overshadows development
The BJP also faces dissidence within its ranks. A BJP leader said the government did a lot of developmental work but even BJP workers are not talking about it because of a lot of infighting. “Factions are hell-bent on damaging rivals and are looking at their prospects for the 2027 elections. This was not anticipated,” said the leader, requesting anonymity.
As many as 22 BJP rebel candidates have filed their nominations. The BJP denied tickets to 11 lawmakers and has been able to convince only three of the rebels to withdraw their nominations.
The BJP has suspended four lawmakers, a state vice-president, and a former Rajya Sabha member for contesting as rebels.
The Congress has been able to convince 14 of its 21 rebels to withdraw nominations. “[State] Congress President Pratibha Singh, who is not contesting, met rebel leaders and convinced them to withdraw. Other leaders also played their part and we have been able to manage the problem of rebels better,” said a Congress leader.
Vandana Yogi, a schoolteacher in Hamirpur, said rebellion in a “disciplined” party like BJP showed it is no different from Congress. Shimla resident Jaswant Prakash said the rebellions happen before every election. “It is normally more in the Congress than in the BJP. This election, the rebellion could harm the BJP more.”
Chief minister Jairam Thakur acknowledged rebel candidates were a cause of concern. He said the party has expanded over the years and there are many ticket aspirants. Thakur regretted the “unprecedented” development work was not a major election issue.
Himachal Pradesh University professor Harish Thakur said easy access to leaders in a small state like Himachal often leads to disenchantment among voters. “…development is rarely an election issue. If someone’s personal work is not done by a leader, she would oppose the leader and ignore the development.”
Leadership vacuum
Neither the BJP nor Congress has projected any chief ministerial candidate. Top BJP leaders including J P Nadda and Union minister Anurag Thakur have said they were contesting under Jairam Thakur’s leadership.
Congress leader Sukhwinder Singh Sukhi wondered if the BJP is saying it is contesting under the chief minister’s leadership why is it afraid to declare him the chief ministerial candidate? “They [the BJP] know he has failed to perform and cannot declare him the candidate.”
BJP spokesman Ganesh Dutta accused the Congress of trying to create confusion as the opposition party is a divided house. “In BJP, there is no confusion over leadership. Everyone in Himachal knows that there are five to six chief ministerial contenders in Congress. Therefore, Congress has not declared a candidate.”
Pratibha Singh said the party’s top leadership will decide who would be the chief minister after taking feedback from the lawmakers. “That has been the tradition of the Congress and it will be followed.”
Chander Pal, a farmer in Kangra, said when Virbhadra Singh was around, they knew he would be the chief minister. “Now, the Congress leaders will fight among themselves if they win.”
Economic distress
Inflation, job losses during Covid-19 and economic hardships are being talked about but have not emerged as major issues.
“I cannot anymore afford to pay ₹1,200 every month for an LPG cylinder as prices of all food items are high. Cooking oil, which is essential for my kitchen, has remained above ₹200 per litre for over a year now. No pulses are less than ₹100 a kilogram,” said Sandhya Devi.
Chandan Mehta, a mushroom grower in Solan, said the incomes of families, especially those dependent on farming, have not increased. “In the past few years, the input cost has increased substantially whereas the selling price has not risen in the same proportion.”
Roshan Lal, a war veteran from Hamirpur, said there is a sentiment for change. “The BJP is very strong, but its candidates are not very good. Congress is weak but has some good candidates. People are voting for local candidates and the issues that have affected them.”
Political analyst Harish Thakur said the election is not unlike past polls, where local issues and the personal conduct of leaders influenced them. “The BJP has a strong cadre and organisational structure unlike Congress, which is totally dependent on its candidates, for any impact. The BJP is trying hard to counter the sentiment of change.”