Russian Moves Beyond Ukraine Could Test NATO’s Will, Says German Intelligence Head

German Spy Chief Warns Russia Seeks to Undermine NATO Without Full-Scale War.

Russia intends to challenge NATO’s unity and collective defense commitments, not just through its war in Ukraine but by extending confrontation beyond, Germany’s foreign intelligence chief Bruno Kahl warned in a recent interview with Table Media.

Kahl, who heads the Federal Intelligence Service (BND), said intelligence indicates Russian officials believe NATO’s Article 5 mutual defense clause lacks real-world credibility. “Ukraine is only a step on the journey westward,” he noted, though emphasizing that Moscow was unlikely to launch a conventional military invasion. Instead, Russia is expected to use subtler means to provoke and destabilize, such as hybrid warfare tactics or covert operations.

“They don’t need tank armies. Sending ‘little green men’ to Estonia under the pretext of protecting Russian minorities could be enough to test NATO,” Kahl said, referring to the 2014 annexation of Crimea, where unmarked Russian forces occupied key locations.

Germany, under Chancellor Friedrich Merz, has reaffirmed its commitment to Ukraine, promising expanded support, including the development of missiles capable of reaching deep into Russian territory.

Kahl added that while he did not name specific Russian officials, his US counterparts also recognized the seriousness of the threat. “They take it as seriously as we do, thank God,” he said.

Merz, who recently met former US President Donald Trump, reportedly countered Trump’s characterization of the conflict, insisting Ukraine’s military targets were legitimate, whereas Russia had focused on civilian infrastructure.

The remarks underscore growing Western concern that Russia is probing for weaknesses in NATO’s resolve and could exploit divisions within the alliance without triggering a traditional military response.