RBI MPC Meet Today: Will the Central Bank Announce a Rate Cut?
Mumbai: The Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), headed by Governor Sanjay Malhotra, will announce its repo rate decision today. Markets are closely watching whether the RBI will cut rates further or maintain the current 5.5% level, amid low inflation, global uncertainties, and recent fiscal measures like GST rationalisation and changes in income tax slabs.
A Bloomberg survey shows 24 of 38 economists expect no change in the repo rate, while 14 anticipate a 25-basis-point cut. Inflation remains near the lower end of the RBI’s 2–6% target, with August CPI at 2.7% and FY26 projections around 2.6–2.8%, providing room for potential easing.
Despite low inflation, growth indicators are mixed. Q1 FY26 GDP rose 7.8%, driven by government spending and rural demand, but weak private investment and urban consumption may limit momentum. Experts suggest the RBI may prefer a pause to assess the impact of fiscal measures before considering further cuts.
Vineet Agrawal, co-founder of Jiraaf, said, “The RBI frontloaded easing earlier this year with a 100-basis-point cut. Today, a pause is likely, with the possibility of a 25-basis-point reduction later in FY26 depending on growth and inflation trends.”
External risks also influence the decision. Tariffs on Indian exports and rupee depreciation could affect trade and capital flows, prompting caution. Analysts believe the RBI may hold rates today while signaling a dovish stance, keeping the door open for future easing if conditions worsen.
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