The United Nations has warned that Sudan’s North Kordofan state is on the brink of a humanitarian catastrophe.
With the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) tightening their grip around the city of El-Obeid and intensifying drone attacks that threaten nearly 500,000 civilians.
Addressing the UN Security Council on Friday, senior UN officials said the situation bears worrying similarities to last year’s siege of El-Fasher, which ended with widespread reports of ethnic killings, mass executions and sexual violence after the RSF seized the city following an 18-month blockade.
A subsequent UN human rights investigation said the violence in El-Fasher may have amounted to war crimes and crimes against humanity.
UN fears ‘another El-Fasher’
Rosemary DiCarlo, the UN’s Under-Secretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs, said drone strikes around El-Obeid have increased significantly over the past two weeks as the RSF expands its presence around the strategic city.
She warned that a full-scale assault would trigger another wave of mass displacement, worsen the humanitarian crisis and make prospects for peace negotiations even more difficult.
“The window to avert a wider escalation in El-Obeid is rapidly narrowing,” DiCarlo told the Security Council.
UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk had earlier warned of an “impending human rights disaster” if the offensive continued.
Children paying the highest price
UNICEF Deputy Executive Director Hannan Sulieman said children continue to bear the brunt of the conflict between the RSF and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), which erupted in April 2023.
More than 5,000 children have been killed or injured since the war began, she said.
“The children of Sudan cannot survive on expressions of concern. They need protection. They need food, water, healthcare and education. They need humanitarian access. And above all, they need this war to end,” Sulieman said.
Drawing parallels with El-Fasher, she urged the Security Council to establish humanitarian corridors into and out of El-Obeid and strengthen child-protection services.
“We must not allow history to repeat itself. Children cannot endure another El-Fasher,” she said.
Humanitarian crisis deepens
UN officials said fighting has intensified across several parts of Sudan, particularly in Kordofan, with clashes continuing around Dilling, Kadugli and Babanusa.
Drone attacks on bridges and transport routes across Darfur and Kordofan have disrupted humanitarian aid deliveries, while violence has also spread to White Nile and Blue Nile states.
DiCarlo warned that, unlike previous years, the rainy season is unlikely to reduce fighting because of the increasing use of drones by both sides.
Sulieman highlighted how attacks on civilian infrastructure have triggered cascading humanitarian emergencies. She cited last year’s strike on energy facilities in White Nile state, which disabled a major water treatment plant and forced communities to rely on untreated river water.
Within weeks, thousands of cholera cases were reported, children died and schools were forced to close.
“In Sudan, one attack does not end when the explosion stops. A single strike can deprive children of safe water, healthcare, education and protection,” she said.
Nearly 19.5 million people in Sudan now face acute hunger, with several regions already experiencing or nearing famine conditions. The UN also estimates that 825,000 children under the age of five will suffer severe acute malnutrition this year, while almost 8 million children remain out of school because nearly half the country’s educational institutions are no longer functioning.
Regional tensions add to uncertainty
Beyond the fighting inside Sudan, DiCarlo warned that tensions with neighbouring Ethiopia and Chad have risen in recent months over border incidents and allegations of interference in each other’s internal affairs.
She cautioned that these disputes risk drawing neighbouring countries deeper into the conflict.
On the diplomatic front, DiCarlo said the Quintet—which includes the African Union, European Union, Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), League of Arab States and the United Nations—held consultations in Addis Ababa earlier this month with Sudanese civilian groups, which backed a Sudanese-led political dialogue.
However, she stressed that international mediation alone cannot end the conflict.
“Diplomatic efforts cannot substitute for the political will required to end this war,” she said, urging the Security Council to take stronger and more unified action before the situation in El-Obeid spirals into another humanitarian disaster.
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