India Projects 6.3–6.8% Growth for FY26, Warns of Tariff Impact from US

India Projects 6.3–6.8% Growth for FY26 Despite US Tariffs, Says CEA.

Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran on Friday expressed confidence that the Indian economy will expand at 6.3–6.8 per cent in FY26, supported by strong domestic demand, even as high US tariffs pose a potential downside risk.

Speaking after the release of first-quarter GDP data, which showed a 7.8 per cent growth, Nageswaran said the steep 50 per cent US tariffs are expected to be short-lived, with talks ongoing for the removal of the 25 per cent penal tariff and a possible bilateral trade agreement.

“Despite the reciprocal and penal tariffs, and after seeing the resilience of Q1 growth, we are retaining the growth projections at 6.3–6.8 per cent,” he said, adding that any downside to the forecast is unlikely to be significant.

The Economic Survey tabled in January had projected the same growth range for FY26. Nageswaran also highlighted that aggregate demand is expected to remain strong in the coming quarters, supported by GST rate cuts and festive-season consumption.