With Trump Silent, Final US-Russia Nuclear Treaty Set to Expire
Washington: This Thursday, unless a last-minute extension is agreed, New START, the last remaining nuclear arms control treaty between the United States and Russia, will expire, removing the only limits on deployed strategic warheads for the world’s top two nuclear powers.
New START, signed in 2010 by President Barack Obama and then-Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, capped each country at 1,550 deployed strategic warheads and 800 launchers or heavy bombers. It followed decades of Cold War-era agreements aimed at controlling the nuclear arms race.
The treaty’s expiration comes amid President Donald Trump’s “America First” approach, which has prioritized U.S. autonomy over international agreements. Trump briefly indicated in September that a one-year extension “sounds like a good idea,” but no formal action has followed. Russian officials, including Medvedev, have noted that the U.S. has provided no substantive response.
Experts warn that the lapse is a missed opportunity. Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association, said the Trump administration’s sidelining of career diplomats has hampered complex negotiations. Jon Wolfsthal of the Federation of American Scientists called extending New START “low-hanging fruit” that could have been achieved quickly at a political level.
Russia has already suspended parts of the treaty, including inspections, as U.S.-Russia tensions escalated over Ukraine. Analysts suggest that both powers now have free rein to deploy and modernize their arsenals, though immediate drastic changes are not expected.
New START’s limits on warheads and delivery systems are still significant, though enough to destroy Earth many times over. During his first term, Trump insisted on including China, whose nuclear arsenal is growing, though far smaller than that of the U.S. or Russia. President Biden extended New START in 2021 for five years, setting the current 2026 expiration.
The treaty’s lapse has reignited debate over global nuclear stability, particularly as China, India, Pakistan, Israel, and North Korea remain outside formal arms control frameworks. Analysts warn that without New START, the risk of unrestrained nuclear expansion and renewed arms competition increases.
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