Strong El Niño Could Push 49 Million More People Into Severe Hunger: WFP

Strong El Niño Could Push 49 Million More People Into Hunger, Warns WFP

A powerful El Niño weather pattern could drive nearly 49 million additional people into acute food insecurity by the end of next year, the World Food Programme (WFP) warned on Wednesday, raising concerns over a worsening global hunger crisis.

According to the UN agency, there is an 81% probability of a very strong El Niño developing, with Pacific Ocean surface temperatures already at their highest levels since at least 1982. If current forecasts hold, it could become the strongest El Niño event since 1950.

El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon marked by unusually warm Pacific Ocean waters. It disrupts weather patterns worldwide, often triggering droughts in Southern Africa, delayed monsoons across parts of Asia, and erratic rainfall in other regions.

“These are events that have historically triggered large-scale hunger,” said Jean-Martin Bauer, Director of WFP’s Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Service.

Millions More at Risk of Food Insecurity

The WFP analysed 45 countries considered highly vulnerable to El Niño and projected that the number of people facing acute food insecurity could rise from current levels to around 274 million by the end of 2027—an increase of nearly 49 million people, or about 22%.

Central America and Southern Africa are expected to bear the brunt of the crisis. The agency estimates that food insecurity could increase by 83% in Central America and nearly 75% in Southern Africa. Southern Africa, South America and the Caribbean could each see more than 12 million additional people requiring urgent food assistance.

Food Prices and Funding Cuts Add to Risks

While global food supplies remain relatively stable following strong harvests in 2025, the WFP warned that geopolitical conflicts, including tensions in the Middle East, and weather-related crop losses could push food prices higher in vulnerable regions.

Although El Niño has not traditionally caused major spikes in global food prices, local shortages and rising costs could significantly reduce access to food for low-income households.

The agency also expressed concern over shrinking humanitarian funding. Cuts in financial support from major donors, including the United States and several European countries, have reduced food security monitoring at a time when timely data is becoming increasingly important.

WFP conducted around 1.1 million household surveys in 2024, but that number fell to 800,000 in 2025 and has declined further this year because of funding constraints.

Call for Early Action

Current forecasts indicate below-average rainfall across parts of East Africa, the Sahel, Central America and the Caribbean, while Somalia and neighbouring regions face an increased risk of flooding. South and Southeast Asia could also experience uneven monsoons, drought and localised flooding, threatening agricultural production.

The WFP stressed that while the exact impacts remain uncertain, governments and humanitarian agencies should act early to reduce the risk of a larger food crisis.

Richard Choularton, Director of WFP’s Climate and Resilience Service, said the agency has already expanded anticipatory action programmes in 18 countries, providing cash assistance and other support to more than 1.3 million people this year to help communities prepare for extreme weather.