US–Venezuela Tensions Raise Crude Concerns, But India’s Risk Remains Low

Trump’s Venezuela Action Jolts Global Markets, But India Likely Unaffected.

US President Donald Trump has sent global markets into a tailspin after ordering airstrikes on Venezuela and detaining President Nicolás Maduro over alleged narco-terrorism and drug trafficking links. With Venezuela holding the world’s largest proven oil reserves, fears of a global oil shock have emerged.

However, experts say India’s economic exposure to Venezuela is minimal. According to the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), India’s imports from Venezuela have sharply declined under US sanctions.

“India faces negligible impact, as trade with Venezuela has collapsed under sanctions, with crude imports down 81.3 per cent in FY2025 and overall bilateral trade remaining marginal,” GTRI founder Ajay Srivastava told PTI.

India–Venezuela Trade in Decline

India was once a major buyer of Venezuelan crude, importing over 400,000 barrels per day at its peak in the 2000s and 2010s. This has fallen dramatically since US sanctions were imposed in 2019. In FY2025, India imported just $255.3 million worth of Venezuelan crude, down from $1.4 billion the previous year, while exports to Venezuela were limited to $95.3 million, including pharmaceuticals worth $41.4 million.

“Given the low trade volumes, sanctions, and geographical distance, the current developments in Venezuela are unlikely to affect India’s economy or energy security,” Srivastava said.

Venezuela’s Oil Reserves and Potential Upside

Venezuela holds roughly 18 per cent of global oil reserves, surpassing Saudi Arabia (16 per cent), Russia (5–6 per cent), and the US (around 4 per cent). Analysts suggest a US-led intervention or restructuring of Venezuela’s oil sector could benefit India.

ONGC Videsh Ltd (OVL) owns a 40 per cent stake in the San Cristobal oilfield, where production has dwindled to 5,000–10,000 barrels per day due to sanctions restricting access to technology and equipment. Venezuela has also withheld dividend payments totaling over $536 million up to 2014, with similar amounts pending for subsequent years.

Easing of sanctions could allow OVL to redeploy rigs from Gujarat to San Cristobal, potentially raising production to 80,000–1,00,000 barrels per day and unlocking nearly $1 billion in long-pending dues.