Rubio Hints At Iran Breakthrough; Global Markets Eye Strong Monday Rally

Nifty May Open With Sharp Gap-Up As Iran-US Peace Hopes Lift Sentiment

The Indian equity market is likely to witness a strong gap-up opening on Monday, May 25, after fresh signs of a possible de-escalation in the Iran-US conflict improved global risk sentiment and cooled crude oil prices.

Investor confidence received a boost after US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, currently visiting India, hinted that a breakthrough in negotiations could emerge within hours. Speaking in New Delhi alongside S. Jaishankar, Rubio said meaningful progress had been made in talks linked to the ongoing West Asia crisis.

“I do think perhaps there is the possibility that in the next few hours the world will get some good news,” Rubio said, while reiterating Washington’s stance that Iran must never acquire nuclear weapons and emphasizing the importance of keeping the Strait of Hormuz open for global trade.

The comments sparked optimism across global markets, especially after weeks of volatility triggered by the Iran-US conflict and disruptions in energy supplies. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz — a key route handling nearly 20 per cent of global crude oil and LNG shipments — had pushed crude prices above the $100-per-barrel mark and weighed heavily on investor sentiment worldwide.

However, hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough helped ease concerns. Brent crude hovered near $103 per barrel, while WTI crude slipped below $100, indicating reduced fears of prolonged supply disruptions.

Nifty Outlook For Monday

Market experts now expect the Nifty to trade with a positive bias after Rubio’s remarks improved global cues significantly.

Immediate support for the index is seen around the 23,300 mark, while the 23,800–24,000 zone remains a crucial resistance area. A sustained move above this range could trigger stronger bullish momentum, while failure to hold support levels may bring back volatility.

Key Triggers For Markets This Week

According to Religare Broking’s Ajit Mishra, investors will closely track several domestic and global developments in the coming sessions.

Among domestic triggers, the market will assess the impact of the RBI’s record dividend transfer to the government, particularly its implications for liquidity, fiscal spending and economic growth expectations.

Globally, developments in Iran-US negotiations, crude oil prices, US bond yields and the movement of the dollar index will remain major sentiment drivers for foreign institutional flows and overall market direction.

On the macroeconomic front, India’s Industrial Production (IIP) data for April 2026, scheduled for release on May 28, will also be watched closely for signs of manufacturing strength and economic momentum.